2017 Oscar Winners Predicted

If Leo was last year’s big Oscar news, this
year’s is La La Land tying with Titanic and All
About Eve for the most nominations of all time
– 14, if you’re asking. So, before you decide to
base your final Oscar predictions on the Golden
Globe winners (Best Supporting Actor winner
Aaron Taylor-Johnson wasn’t even nominated
by the Academy), well, don’t. For, if you take a
closer look at the science behind the Academy
Awards , you’ll know that matching the Golden
Globes to the Oscars is about as simple as
Leo’s hunt for that second golden statue.
Here’s how we see it playing out in 2017:
1. Manchester By The Sea won’t
win Best Picture
Kenneth Lonergan’s family weepy may have
Casey Affleck leading the Best Actor race (only
Denzel Washington is nipping at his heels), but
the film itself won’t fare as well in the Oscars’
biggest category. Why? Because you need an
editing nomination to win the grand prize.
(This also dashes the Best Picture chances of
Hidden Figures , Lion and Fences.)
However this isn’t completely set in stone. In
fact as recently as 2015 Birdman broke with
convention by winning Best Picture without an
editing nomination. Before that? You’d have to
head back to 1981’s Ordinary People to find
the last Best Picture winner to achieve such a
feat.
Something Manchester By The Sea absolutely
should be applauded for, however, is being the
first film backed by a streaming company to
crack the Best Picture race. Kudos, Amazon
Studios.
2. Mel Gibson may have slipped
in, but Hacksaw Ridge won’t win
the top prize either
Of this year’s nine Best Picture nominees, eight
have a screenplay nomination – except
Hacksaw Ridge . Only one film in five decades
has won Best Picture without a writing nod.
The film in question? A tiny indie called
Titanic .
3. You’re not meant to win Best
Picture without a Best Ensemble
nomination from the Screen
Actors Guild
As we explained in our ‘yeah, science!’ piece ,
you can’t win Best Picture without a Best
Ensemble nomination from the Screen Actors
Guild. So has La La Land – a definite two-
hander as opposed to an ensemble effort –
pirouetted itself into trouble by not receiving
said SAG nomination?
If Chazelle’s film takes the big prize come next
month – which at this point seems 99.9%
likely – it will be the first film to do so since
1996, when Mel Gibson’s Braveheart
unconventionally marched its way to Best
Picture glory without a SAG Best Ensemble nod
of its own.
During the 2017 Oscar race, SAG deemed
Captain Fantastic , Fences, Hidden Figures ,
Manchester By The Sea and Moonlight fit for
their Best Ensemble category – all of which are
nominated for a Best Picture Oscar, except
Captain Fantastic . So, while La La Land is the
current favourite, this keeps a few other films in
the conversation.
4. Acting nominations boost your
Best Picture chances
Question: what was the last film to win Best
Picture without a single acting nomination?
Answer: Slumdog Millionaire . Alright, so the
2009 Oscars weren’t all that long ago, but it’s
incredibly rare to take the grand prize without
at least one actor in contention.
It’s worth remembering that actors make up
the majority of the Academy’s members –
that’s a powerful bunch you want on side. So,
while Arrival may be up for Best Picture, it
would help if it had an acting nomination, too.
Here’s looking at you, La La Land (Emma
Stone; Ryan Gosling), Manchester By The Sea
(Casey Affleck; Lucas Hedges; Michelle
Williams) and Moonlight (Mahershala Ali;
Naomie Harris).
Hacksaw Ridge , Hidden Figures, Lion, Fences
and Hell Or High Water also boast acting
nominations, but, for the reasons explained
above and here we’re placing them well outside
the Best Picture frame.
5. Meryl Streep won’t win this
year...
This is Streep’s twentieth Oscar nomination.
( Twentieth! ) But her mantelpiece isn’t in any
danger of gaining a fourth Oscar this year. The
pair battling it out for Best Actress in 2017?
Emma Stone ( La La Land ) and Natalie Portman
( Jackie).
6. But we will see our first non-
white acting double win in 12
years
Mahershala Ali. Viola Davis. Place your bets
now.
7. Critics’ groups tend to show
us where the acting love lies
Remember when we said the Critics’ Choice
Awards had a pretty great track record for
forecasting the bigger Oscar categories (and
that their Best Picture prediction rate was
better than that of SAG, BAFTA and the Golden
Globes)? Last year they ‘wrongly’ handed Mad
Max Best Picture ( Spotlight went on to win the
Oscar), but their shiny acting prizes went to
Leonardo DiCaprio, Brie Larson, Sylvester
Stallone and Alicia Vikander – a motion the
Academy replicated, apart from Stallone (Mark
Rylance won). This time around, they’ve opted
for La La Land, Casey Affleck, Natalie Portman,
Mahershala Ali and Viola Davis. Will Portman
beat Emma Stone to Best Actress on the
night? We’ll have to wait and see.
8. It doesn’t look like Lin-Manuel
Miranda will be getting his EGOT
just yet
Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony. Only 12 people
(including Mel Brooks, Mike Nichols, Audrey
Hepburn and Whoopi Goldberg) have won all
four. With the ‘EGT’ part already under his belt
– and a Pulitzer to boot – it looks like
Hamilton creator, Moana songmeister, and all-
round musical wizard Miranda will have to hold
on for at least another year before he can
secure that elusive ‘O’.
9. The guilds hold the answer
It’s hard to predict which way Best Picture will
swing before two specific guilds – and SAG –
have their say. Receiving critical buzz and
regional awards in the earlier parts of Oscar
season is all well and good, but while they may
be a handy indicator, critics’ awards (besides
the Critics’ Choice, as mentioned above) and
the Golden Globes mean diddly squat in the
grand scheme of things.
It’s all about the choices of the DGA (Directors
Guild of America – Best Director), PGA
(Producers Guild of America – Best Producer)
and SAG (Screen Actors Guild – Best
Ensemble). Win all three and you’re positively
golden. But if the trio find themselves split?
Well, things might just get a little complicated:
see the 1996 Oscars where the SAG, PGA and
DGA-winning Apollo 13 lost Best Picture to
Braveheart (the last film to win the holy
trifecta and not go on to take the Academy’s
top prize, fact fans). As mentioned earlier, La
La Land ’s lack of a SAG Best Ensemble nom
makes things that little bit more interesting.
This is also how 2015’s big Boyhood v.
Birdman face-off was easy to settle. Birdman
took the SAG, DGA and PGA’s top honours. It
was never going to lose.
10. Moonlight could still take the
big prize...
As we’ve already mentioned, you need
directing, editing, screenplay and acting
nominations for the greatest chance of winning
Best Picture. Moonlight has all of these, yet its
eight brilliant nominations have been
somewhat outshone by the behemoth that is
La La Land ’s 14.
There is still time for a not-completely-
impossible late surge if the guilds decide to
swing for Moonlight , as explained above. It’s
been a relatively straightforward Oscar season
this year, so a spread of awards from the
guilds would inject some welcome tension into
this race’s later stages.